This just in from NH Prez Watch, and the LA Times, but I like to credit Cosmo (vote globally, blog locally!):
New poll [http://www.latimes.com/media/acrobat/2007-09/32481597.pdf] shows John Edwards is now tying Obama for 2nd place in this state, bumping Richardson back down to 4th. It's a 10 page document, and I will leave it to the experts (and the students in POLT 600) to comb through it with more precision, but it feels real nice to have my suspicions confirmed.
Let me back up. Last night I did more phone work for Edwards in their Dover HQ. What a difference from my last stint just a few weeks ago. First of all, no one can say Clinton has a hold on female voters. All 6 volunteers at the office at the same time as me were women, ranging in age from mid-30s to mid-60s. Secondly, what everyone has said about Labor Day is so true (unscientifically, of course)! In August, everyone I called was undecided, or at least pretended to be, and didn't seem to be paying attention. Now, post-Labor Day, I had more folks say they are paying attention, reading the papers and websites, AND are committed or at least have narrowed down their field to three. Interestingly, I had a bunch of Kucinich supporters, one for Obama, a few for Hillary, and a whole bunch for whom Edwards was in the running (1st, 2nd, or 3rd).
But it's my gut that felt this change coming. Richardson had some commercials a while back on WMUR, and his polls went up immediately. They were really well done and were received favorably enough to increase name recognition & interest, I thought, but they didn't produce a lasting bump, especially after a few poor debate/forum performances. Obama seems to be loosing his traction here, to me. Sure he's been here (hosting ice cream socials), but he hasn't gotten any union endorsements that I can recall, and he seems to be shooting for the elite vote. Just try to diagram one of his sentences; you need a college degree to follow his train of thought! And don't forget arugula-gate...
Then there is John Edwards, and his greatest asset, Elizabeth. They've been in the state a whole lot, separately and together, and much more on the weekends than before. What a dynamic duo!! There has been a TV spot (the music of which was borrowed by the Clinton team for their spot later), and of course the multiple labor endorsements. This coming weekend, his national campaign chair, David Bonior, will be in the state canvassing & rallying the troops while handing out tree saplings to highlight Senator Edwards' environmental & energy plan. Edwards is a policy wonk's dream. (I'm not a wonk, but a wanna be, which explains why I loved Bill Clinton so much.) If you want to know exactly where a candidate stands or what he/she will do once elected, Edwards is your candidate. And that's where I think Obama is playing catch up.
I know I know...It's still early. But apparently, it's not as early as it used to be!
