Told Ya...

I love how this always seems to work out for me.  I post a random rambling, something that has been stewing around in my head but I have absolutely no facts to support it, other than my gut, to make the case.

Then voila, the interwebs provide me with plenty of support to prove I'm not just making things up.  Two cases in point:

1. Further evidence that New Hampshire Republicans are not to be confused with Bible Belt Repubs.   Turns out that NH is the least god-fearing state in the union.  Drop dead last.  Add this to my growing list of things for which NH is either #1 or #50.  And furthering the argument that we just cannot be mediocre; we always have to be best or worst, FIRST or dead last!  (For the record, you will also see at this link that NH is #1 in alcohol sales, which may or may not be related to our godlessness.  Personally, I think it has more to do with our state run liquor outlet stores on the borders with MA and ME.)
2. Then, folks in Iowa make the same point I made a few days ago, about feeling entitled to some face time with potential candidates. Being first may be a privelige, but it's also a huge responsibility. Granite Staters and Iowans do not take this task lightly.  Sarah Palin, beware!

Just sayin'.

Hello, Blogosphere...remember me?

I have been MIA on FRS, but I'm still here in the Granite State, waiting for 2012 to kick into high gear.  Every once in a while, something small pops on my radar screen, like Rudy showing up at Portsmouth High School's graduation, or Dante being quoted making some speculations.  A few names have been bubbling around, and a few appearances at small town events are sure to pop up this summer.  But it's really not enough to get my heart pumping just yet.

What I am really waiting for is a visit from Sarah Palin.  Loyal readers will know I am no fan of the former Governor of Alaska, but I am oddly fascinated with her career, and her popularity (fascinated like the way people stare at train wrecks).  I fully intend to see her in person if the opportunity presents itself, and will be sure to report on everything from her shoes to her sentence structure. 

I'm going to put out my prediction for Sarah now, just to have it on the record so I can hopefully say I TOLD YOU SO! She will NOT do well in New Hampshire, and if she's smart (ha!) or her staff does their homework (ha ha!) she will not even attempt to enter the primary.  No, it's not wishful thinking because truthfully, it would be a whole lot more fun for me if she does run. 

My number one reason for predicting her failure in NH is this: every candidate's staff spends a lot of time on the ground trying to gain endorsements--aka grovelling--from our 400+ citizen legislators, state senators, local newspaper editorial boards, local party organizations, unions, non-profits, and grass-roots organizations.  If the staff is successful, then the next step is some quality candidate access.  Seriously, can you see  her sitting down with the editorial board of Portsmouth Herald or Concord Monitor to answer policy questions??  She'd need to have house parties that are somewhat public, or policy forums, or town halls.  And she's have to take questions, both from the public AND the press...and ANSWER THEM.  And not just questions about dressing moose or being a hockey mom.  May the gods help her if she tries to plant questions at a New Hampshire town hall meeting!

My other reason, though secondary, is still a very strong one.  Her brand of conservatism is not the same as that of what's left of the NH GOP.  NH Republicans are not part of the religious right, and they are fairly well educated.

So, who DOES stand a chance in NH?  It think Mitt will be back and will be stronger, if only because he the benefit of name recognition (meaning he may be the least of all evils).  Barbour, Jindal, Huckabee, Pawlenty??  Fourth of July parades are coming up, followed closely by Labor Day events.  I expect to get a bit busier as the summer of 2010 progresses.