Hello, Blogosphere...remember me?

I have been MIA on FRS, but I'm still here in the Granite State, waiting for 2012 to kick into high gear.  Every once in a while, something small pops on my radar screen, like Rudy showing up at Portsmouth High School's graduation, or Dante being quoted making some speculations.  A few names have been bubbling around, and a few appearances at small town events are sure to pop up this summer.  But it's really not enough to get my heart pumping just yet.

What I am really waiting for is a visit from Sarah Palin.  Loyal readers will know I am no fan of the former Governor of Alaska, but I am oddly fascinated with her career, and her popularity (fascinated like the way people stare at train wrecks).  I fully intend to see her in person if the opportunity presents itself, and will be sure to report on everything from her shoes to her sentence structure. 

I'm going to put out my prediction for Sarah now, just to have it on the record so I can hopefully say I TOLD YOU SO! She will NOT do well in New Hampshire, and if she's smart (ha!) or her staff does their homework (ha ha!) she will not even attempt to enter the primary.  No, it's not wishful thinking because truthfully, it would be a whole lot more fun for me if she does run. 

My number one reason for predicting her failure in NH is this: every candidate's staff spends a lot of time on the ground trying to gain endorsements--aka grovelling--from our 400+ citizen legislators, state senators, local newspaper editorial boards, local party organizations, unions, non-profits, and grass-roots organizations.  If the staff is successful, then the next step is some quality candidate access.  Seriously, can you see  her sitting down with the editorial board of Portsmouth Herald or Concord Monitor to answer policy questions??  She'd need to have house parties that are somewhat public, or policy forums, or town halls.  And she's have to take questions, both from the public AND the press...and ANSWER THEM.  And not just questions about dressing moose or being a hockey mom.  May the gods help her if she tries to plant questions at a New Hampshire town hall meeting!

My other reason, though secondary, is still a very strong one.  Her brand of conservatism is not the same as that of what's left of the NH GOP.  NH Republicans are not part of the religious right, and they are fairly well educated.

So, who DOES stand a chance in NH?  It think Mitt will be back and will be stronger, if only because he the benefit of name recognition (meaning he may be the least of all evils).  Barbour, Jindal, Huckabee, Pawlenty??  Fourth of July parades are coming up, followed closely by Labor Day events.  I expect to get a bit busier as the summer of 2010 progresses.