The other thing dominating the local news this week (beside Bike Week) is the new statewide poll which puts Hillary squarely in the lead in NH. It's causing quite a bit of chatter on blogs & news sites alike, not to mention around the water cooler (and in my house and probably yours, the dinner table).
I'm no statistician; I barely survived stats in grad school, and they are what keeps me from getting a PhD. I leave the number crunching to people that like that stuff, and prefer to try to figure out the why of the numbers. The psychology of the campaign trail fascinates me. (I was, after all, a sociology major.)
Everyone loves a winner. But when your guy's not in the lead or improving, funny things start to happen. First, excuses/explanations/rationales, which are very tempting when everyone is looking at you like you're a knucklehead. Some assume those who were polled must be onto something they don't know, and change teams or at least start looking around. Others dig in and find the weaknesses to exploit in the leaders or the demographic that they can make a difference in. I, however, am an optimist and a Leo, which makes me loyal beyond reason. Once I've committed, I hunker down & work to prove the nay-sayers are wrong or die trying.
It all makes me think of Red Sox Nation. Most true fans never let something as silly as statistics stop them from supporting the team. They didn't ditch the Sox after so many heartbreaks (like I did). They believed, and stood firm despite years of ridicule and humilation. And eventually, they were rewarded.
So chin up to all the teams that didn't meet the expecations game. We all know that it's a long way to election day (whenever that my be), and anything can happen. Granite Staters usually hate being told there is a preordained nominee. These things can turn on a dime, which is what makes it so much fun.
