Greetings from Boise, Idaho, and hello to my NSE conference friends who may be reading this (this means you, Sandy from Hawai'i!). I finished Professor Scala's
Stormy Weather while here, because I am in Primary Withdrawal (
no one outside NH is ready to engage me on this except for you, Sandy, and I thank you!). Here are the major things I learned about the NH Primary in addition to that gem of how it all got started (see previous post):
- It doesn't matter if you win or loose, as long as you do "better than expected."
- For this reason, being a front-runner this early out is not a desirable place to be.
- Momentum is ellusive, but if you get that, you've got what it takes.
- A Dem can't win NH unless he/she is equally well supported in educated/elite towns or zones (Hanover, Durham) as well as working class hubs (Berlin, Manchester, Somersworth). Elite-only seems to be the kiss of death.
Scala's got an interesting formula he uses to determine this "equality of support," which has come out of analyzing primaries past from beginning to 2000. (BTW, I'd LOVE to see updated data from 2004.) I have had to face the truth that I vote with the elitists! Yikes!! And our hallmark is not necessarily voting for the one who can (or should) win, but the one who will "send a message" to the rest of the country or the party or the candidates. Oh, I am SO guilty!
So I'm recommending this book to my fellow Primary Junkies. The history of primaries in general and NH in particular should be understood by all New Hampshirites. And, it was kinda fun to see the name of Stacey's WMRHS Junior Prom date mentioned and quoted so much. ;-)
