When I was in DC not long ago, I got a few remarks from strangers about being from New Hampshire with regard to being in a so-called "swing state." The most curious was when a security guard at Reagan Nat'l Airport--an elderly Black man who was checking my ID--commented somewhat skeptically, "New Hampshire, huh? They really like McCain up there, I hear." Very bold of him, I thought. "Don't believe it!" I replied. "They USED to like McCain, before he got all extreme." Then the conversation went naturally to what a freak Palin is. Having just spent a day the the Smithsonian Museum of Natural History examining fossils and meteorites that were millions of years old, I launched into her belief that humans & dinosaurs walked on Earth together. He laughed shaking his head and waving me through, "I hadn't heard that one yet! THAT is a good one."
I passed through and walked toward my gate wondering to myself, "I'm not wrong on this, am I?" My view of the state is that we could not in the past be counted as Red the way the midwest or south is Red. New Hampshire conservatism is not evangelical or religiously based. It's Live Free or Die here--live free of government intervention in particular. Don't tell me what I can do while hunting, motorcycling, on my own property, in my doctor's office, in my church, or in my own bedroom. That is not the same "base" as the one loving Gov. Palin right now. By pandering to that evangelical base, I believe McCain has alienated the more Libertarian, NH-type base (in which I include George F. Will). But, am I wrong? I wondered...
Then, today, along came a new state-wide poll! NHIOP poll puts Obama in the lead in the state! Not just by a hair, but by 10 points! Most interesting to me was this:
Among those who say they will vote for Obama, however, 41% say McCain’s choice
of Palin influenced their decision a lot or some. Only 22% of McCain voters say
Biden influenced their decision a lot or some.
And another poll has similar results; Obama is in the lead by 10 points. The right-wing nut job that is Sarah Palin may have energized McCain's flailing campaign, but she has kissed New Hampshire good bye in the process.
Now I want to know this: what kind of turn out did her recent Manchester rally get?
