It occurred to me while cleaning up from dinner that I hadn't yet vocalized my Iowa predictions! I like to do this out loud, to go on record rather than later saying "I knew it!" So, here goes, quickly, before any caucus results are out...
Hillary is crashing fast. The blogs and news sites are full of her attempts to lower expectations. And, after all, it's all about beating expectations. Being that far ahead, that far in advance, is/was more of a curse than blessing. Who can maintain that kind of lead? There is/was no place to go but down. Really, it wasn't an enviable position. Now her supporters don't know what to do with themselves. How do you act as a 2nd place or 3rd place candidate? Arrogance and inevitability don't work anymore.
I do predict an Edwards surprise victory. He's spend the last four years studying the Iowa system like it was one of his juries, and winning them over slowly and steadily. All along, his staff repeatedly said "we are right where we want to be, don't worry," and now I see why. He may not have the money or numbers of paid staff, but his attention to smaller and rural precincts is/was brilliant. It's a tortoise & hare thing. And,he's got more unions there and they will come out for him. He targeted not numbers, but the influential community members that locals trust.
Obama, IMHO, is relying too heavily on the youth vote. They are hopeful but unreliable, but also, inexperienced at caucusing and pursuading their neighbors. He came to the populist message too little, too late.
So, either I will have a smug "told you so" post tomorrow, or I will be making up excuses. Or maybe I'll just turn the page and happily focus on New Hampshire for the next five days (and Bill at 3pm in the MUB, not 2pm, Friday)!
Whatever happens just remember that it's not about winning as much as who exceeds expectations of the media and the general public. So, if the MSM has been ignoring you for 12 months, you have no where to go but UP!
